Assessment of the Bankruptcy Risk in the Hotel Industry as a Condition of the COVID-19 Crisis Using Time-Delay Neural Networks

In this paper we demonstrate a new conceptual framework in the application of multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural networks (ANNs) to bankruptcy risk prediction using different time-delay neural network (TDNN) models to assess Altman's EM Z″-score risk zones of firms for a sample of 100 companies operating in the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia. Hence, the accuracies of 9580 forecasting ANNs trained for the period 2016 to 2021 are analyzed, and the impact of various input parameters of different ANN models on their forecasting accuracy is investigated, including Altman's bankruptcy risk indicators, market and internal nonfinancial indicators, the lengths of the learning periods of the ANNs and of their input parameters, and the K-means clusters of risk zones. Based on this research, 11 stability indicators (SIs) for the years under analysis are formulated, which represent the generalization capabilities of ANN models, i.e., differences in the generalization errors between the preceding period and the year for which zone assessment is given;these are seen as a consequence of structural changes at the industry level that occurred during the relevant year. SIs are validated through comparison with the relative strength index (RSI) for descriptive indicators of Altman's model, and high correlation is found. Special focus is placed on the identification of the stability in 2020 in order to assess the impact of the COVID-19 crisis during that year. It is established that despite the fact that the development of bankruptcy risk in the hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia is a highly volatile process, the largest changes in the analyzed period occurred in 2020, i.e., the potential applications of ANNs for forecasting zones in 2020 are limited. © 2022 by the authors.

Guest satisfaction and dissatisfaction with hotels in Vrnjacka Banja: the situation analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic

The development of domestic tourism is marked as one of the positive changes caused by the COVID-19 virus pandemic. The always popular spa destinations in Serbia are becoming more and more visited. Accordingly, it is necessary to determine which factors lead to the satisfaction or dissatisfaction of domestic guests in hotels. This paper will examine the satisfaction and dissatisfaction of hotel guests who shared their experiences through reviews on the Booking.com platform. The sample consisted of hotel guests in Vrnjacka Banja, because this destination stands out as the most visited during the coronary virus pandemic in Serbia. During August 2021, a total of 533 reviews of domestic tourists were collected, and the analysis of the obtained data was performed with the help of the SPSS 20 social science package and the RapidMiner data mining software. The analysis of the results revealed that a total of 8 factors affected the satisfaction of hotel guests during the corona virus pandemic, while a total of 5 factors influenced the dissatisfaction. The obtained results will help hotel managers in creating adequate strategies to improve those factors that are a source of dissatisfaction of guests such as the service provided, room equipment or additional facilities.

COVID-19 and profitability of hotel companies in the Republic of Serbia

Besides obvious negative consequences for people's health, the COVID-19 pandemic placed significant negative consequences on the economy as well. Since pandemic made tourism and travel almost impossible, these industries of tourism and hospitality suffered the most. The aim of this paper is to assess whether the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has caused a change in the level of profitability of companies from hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia. The research sample consisted of 100 companies from hotel industry in the Republic of Serbia, where their operations in 2019 and 2020 were observed. The Operating Profit Margin, Net Profit Margin, Return on Assets and Return on Equity were used for the purposes of measuring profitability. The research determined that in the largest number of observed hotel companies in 2020, there was a decrease in profitability considering all four used indicators. By applying the Wilcoxon rank test and the t-test of paired samples, it was determined that the mentioned reductions in the used profitability indicators are statistically significant.